Joe

While squandering some precious time at the computer keyboard yesterday morning I was struck by one of those “I wonder what happened to X” moments. The X in this case was a former colleague and friend from around 1982.

When I changed my work base from London to Plymouth at around that time I first worked for what turned out to be a traditional, hierarchical accounting firm (hadn’t come across like that at the interview. Never trust an interview!). In hindsight they offered a useful interlude during which I could learn about the area before moving on to something much better; at the time it was a bit painful recognising their ‘going nowhere’ nature. But my time there was made tolerable by the company of one or two interesting and entertaining colleagues.

One, who joined a short while after I did, was Joe Marffy. Joe seemed quiet at first, but I soon found out  more about him after spending some time with him away from the office. He was about four years younger than I but with a totally different background. Joe’s parents were Hungarian and had emigrated to Southern Rhodesia (now Zimbabwe) after the second world war. They became farmers and it was there that Joe grew up. Unsurprisingly, he had a good stock of stories about the people and animals of his region and of attending school in Harare. Later he had been conscripted into the Rhodesian army to take part in the Rhodesian Bush War; needless to say there were tales to be told about that part of his life too, some humorous but all too many not.

The location of our office in Plymouth was difficult for parking unless you were prepared to pay. Joe wasn’t. He solved the problem by leaving his car each day on the double yellow lines outside. His theory was that as there was a police station opposite, the traffic wardens would assume the car was owned by a police officer and leave it alone. Sure enough, he was never given a ticket. Typical Joe.

He once said to us “if you only travel to one place, go to Victoria Falls“. He doesn’t know this but we took his advice. He was right: well worth the journey.

Like me, my friend was not satisfied with life with that firm and he soon moved out of the accounting profession and out of the area. After that I lost touch with him (common in those pre-internet days), hence my search yesterday.

I found him on Linked-in: he was a director of a financial services company. Unfortunately I also found an obituary for him. It seems that Joe died of a heart attack in November 2011; he would have been around 54 years old. There was an online guest book (now archived) where people could leave their thoughts about him; many were from former school friends. “Joe was mischief personified” said one (true). “Remembered fondly by the class of ’75 for wit and wisdom, humour and intellect and a memory unmatched” was another. There was mention of a school reunion he had attended months before he died.

I wish I’d had another chance to share a beer with him too.

The badger cull: exchanges with my MP, part 5

Mr Gary Streeter MP
House of Commons
London SW1A 0AA

31 May 2013

Dear Mr Streeter

We had an exchange of emails concerning the proposed badger cull in October last year. At that time you accepted Owen Paterson’s justification for it and asked me to:

“ acknowledge that there is a powerful case that the science is on the side of the government.”

I have continued to review fresh research, arguments and opinions since that time and the more I read (not least, this), the more the government’s arguments appear thin and utterly remote from the science. Indeed, it’s not just the cull: as someone who has generally supported the Conservatives (at least on economic matters) it upsets me to have to acknowledge that Mr Paterson is, in fact, on the wrong side of just about every argument he joins.

I am once more asking you to urge the Government to stop the pilot badger culls in Gloucestershire and Somerset which are due to commence anytime from 1 June 2013.  I believe the Government should change its policy on tackling Bovine TB for the following reasons:

1. The badger is one of our most fascinating mammals and an important part of our ecosystem – the Government should recognise that millions of people care deeply about this important part of our natural heritage and the value of nature.
2. The best informed scientists on this issue, including Lord Krebs and Professor John Bourne, do not support the cull – it is unacceptable for the Government to ignore their expert opinion.
3. As I write more than 232,000 people have signed the HMG e-petition calling for the cull to be scrapped. When the resulting debate was held in the House in October 2012, MPs voted overwhelmingly against a cull proceeding. Do the opinions of the public and of MPs count for nothing?

Instead of culling badgers, the Government should improve cattle movement controls and testing and support farmers to implement simple bio-security measures.  The Government should prioritise the development of a cattle vaccine and divert the estimated £6m costs of licensing, monitoring and policing the pilot culls into a major programme of government funded badger vaccination.

Only then will we be able to get on top of this disease in an effective way.

I saw a comment on Twitter today from a New Zealand wildlife photographer (@davidllo). He said:

“Of the many countries I’ve known, none appreciate its wildlife as Britain does. Except its government, who just want to blast it all away.”

Apart from the powerful scientific case that exists against the cull, it’s another issue that will poison the reputation of the Conservative Party.

I hope, on fresh consideration, you will feel able to support the motion next Wednesday: “This House believes the badger cull should not go ahead”.

Regards

David

 

His response:

3 June 2013

Dear Mr Powell,

Thank you for your email.

No sorry, I strongly support these culls and want to do all we can to support our dairy farmers who desperately need help with bovine tb.

Kind regards,

Gary Streeter

 

My reply:

3 June 2013

Dear Mr Streeter

I too strongly support our dairy farmers, which is why I think it will be a disaster to pursue a policy which independent scientists believe (without exception, so far as I know) is doomed to failure.

I note that you have failed to address any of the points I raised: do the views of scientists matter? the views of parliament? the views of the people? of your constituents? Apparently not.

You are doubtless acquainted with this:

A statement reported in the Veterinary Record made by Professor John Bourne (Chairman of the Independent Scientific Group in 2008 to the annual conference of the Association for Veterinary Teaching and Research aptly summarises the situation. He said:

“I think the most interesting observation was made to me by a senior politician, who said, ‘Fine, John, we accept your science, but we have to offer farmers a carrot. And the only carrot we can possibly give them is culling badgers”.

It seems nothing has changed.

Regards

 

David

Radio news

I haven’t reported on my amateur radio exploits recently because there haven’t been any. The total of my radio activity this year, a ‘wire in a tree’ QRP contact with T77C in San Marino, took place in April. Perhaps my response to the ‘one QSO a day’ movement has been a variant offering one a year?

This lack of effort dates from the loss of my second Cushcraft R8 last September. I have not decided on a replacement, so nothing has happened.

I’m sure the wish to send some CW will strengthen to the point of action at some point and the sight of a number of HF beams seen on holiday in Malta last week did arouse some interest, but for now the Elecraft transceivers remain silent.

One year of solar power

One year ago today our solar PV system was installed and commissioned.

The last year has featured long periods of particularly wet and dull weather, so it has not been the ideal time to be testing its capabilities.

In theory it can produce 3.84 kW of power although we have not seen it generating close to that level. Before the system was installed we were given predictions of the amount of power we could expect to generate month by month: over the year we have reached 90% of that target which does seem good considering the weather we have endured.

The  total generated over the twelve months has been 3,472 kWh (more than we use) and this should have saved around 1,830 kg of CO2 emissions. The lowest daily figure of power produced has been 0.1 kWh, the highest 23.5 kWh. Thanks to the UK government subsidies – the so-called ‘feed-in tariff‘ scheme – the system is economically viable to us; without subsidy it would not be.

I have not noticed any radio or TV interference from our installation, but there are no aerials close to any element of it.

Overall, a good investment!

Before 2008 the UK didn’t have growth – merely the illusion of it

You don’t make yourself more wealthy by borrowing money and buying stuff. Yet much of what passed for growth in the UK economy in the run up to the 2008 economic crisis was created in just that way.

In the period to 2008 total borrowings were growing at an alarming rate – both private and public debt was out of control. Since then in the UK we have been paying down private debt yet despite all the allegations that the government has ‘cut too deep and too fast’, it has not actually cut at all – the national debt is still spiralling upwards.

While I had always suspected that years of apparent growth in GDP was simply a result of the UK’s growing debt (meaning that our economy has in reality been stagnating for years) I had seen no figures to back this up. Now I have, in an article that appeared a couple of weeks ago in City A.M. and in Perfect Storm (pdf file), the research paper it summarised:

“THE West lies at the confluence of four extremely dangerous long-term developments. Individually or collectively, they have already begun to reverse more than two centuries of economic expansion.

The first is well-known: the creation of the worst financial bubble in history – “the great credit super-cycle”. Since the 1980s, a relentless shift to immediate consumption resulted in the accumulation of debt on an unprecedented scale. The financial crisis was not entirely the result of a short period of malfeasance by a tiny minority. What began in 2008 was the denouement of a broad-based process that lasted for 30 years.

The problem is shown in the relationship between GDP and aggregate credit market debt in the US. Between 1945 and 1981, the ratio barely changed – reaching 168 per cent of GDP. But then a relentless upwards shift began. Between 1981 and 2009, debt grew by 390 per cent in real terms, far outpacing US economic growth (of 120 per cent). By 2009, the debt ratio reached 381 per cent of GDP.

Most remarkable was that this lasted for so long, in defiance of logic. And a spendthrift public had nothing on policymakers. Gordon Brown declared the end of “boom and bust” and gloried in “growth”, despite expansion being nothing more than the spending of borrowed money. Between 2001-02 and 2009-10, Britain added £5.40 of private and public debt for each £1 of GDP growth. Between 1998 and 2012, real GDP increased by £338bn, while debt soared by £1.1 trillion. No other country got it so wrong, but the same was happening across the West…”

Read on

Dr Tim Morgan, author of both the article and paper believes that our economic problems are rooted not just in the credit bubble but also in the impact of globalisation, the lack of honest economic statistics and the growing cost of obtaining energy. Is he right?

“We are nearing the end of a period of 250 years in which growth has been the assumed normal. And, without action, this will have stark implications for the economies of the West.”

Faster broadband for Devon: will those most in need gain help first?

Just as state benefits should help the poorest first, when public money is used to upgrade broadband coverage it would make sense to help those worst served first. But is that what will happen with the Devon and Somerset scheme?

It’s great news that at last Connecting Devon and Somerset (CDS) have signed a contract with BT, survey work is underway and an announcement has been promised during Spring 2013 of the first locations that will be upgraded to superfast broadband.

Since the organisation was formed, CDS have said very little about their priorities or the technology they will use to achieve their goal. They are part of the ‘BDUK’ process (see this) and originally declared that their objective was to:

“deliver broadband (greater than 2Mbps) for all by 2015, and superfast broadband (greater than 24Mbps) to at least 85 per cent of homes and businesses by 2015; aiming for 100 per cent superfast broadband coverage by 2020.”

The contract signed with BT does not cover all of this: they now say they have:

“a deal with BT which aims to deliver high-speed fibre broadband to around 90 per cent of premises by the end of 2016 and to ensure a minimum of 2Mbps broadband speeds for all.”

Across the country BT have undertaken to roll out so called ‘super-fast broadband’ to two thirds of premises themselves (the ‘commercial rollout’) but have claimed that going beyond that would not be cost effective for them. For Devon and Somerset this new deal seems destined to lift the two thirds to 90 per cent (a welcome improvement on the promised 85 per cent even if it will come a year later than the original timetable) but it does not  guarantee superfast broadband for all by 2016, or even 2020. Whether you benefit will depend on which telephone exchange serves you and how far from the exchange or BT street cabinet you live (with copper connections, longer phone lines give slower broadband speeds).

BT plan to offer ‘fibre to the cabinet’ to most areas: fine if you live near an upgraded exchange and cabinet.

Perhaps the ‘final 10 per cent’ will have to be the subject of a further contract, driven by further public sector investment (if any more is forthcoming after the next election).

Those 10 per cent at the end of the queue will almost certainly be the people most poorly served (or not served at all) by broadband at present – in other words, those that most need their service upgrading are likely to be the very last to benefit from this public investment, if indeed they do at all.

At the moment BT’s exchanges provide a mix of broadband offerings: basic broadband (called ADSL Max, which is offered by our own Loddiswell exchange) gives speeds of up to 8Mbps, some exchanges provide an enhanced version of broadband (ADSL2+) offering up to 20Mpbs and the most favoured areas receive one of the superfast fibre-based products (up to 80Mbps for ‘fibre to the cabinet’ areas or up to 330Mbps for ‘fibre to the premises’). Of these varieties, only fibre to the premises can be described as completely ‘future-proof’.

Until a couple of years ago our Loddiswell exchange was scheduled to be upgraded to ADSL2+ but that plan was cancelled at about the time it appeared that public money would be available to help the high-speed broadband rollout. Some areas were still upgraded to receive ADSL2+ (locally, Kingsbridge is an example) but many small exchanges such as Loddiswell and Bigbury-on-sea were dropped from the scheme.

Under the new plans it seems likely that BT will wish to upgrade the most profitable exchanges first – unless the terms of the contract with CDS say otherwise (and so far nobody is saying). This could mean that people in Kingsbridge (to pick an exchange at random!) already on a broadband service providing speeds of up to 20Mbps, would quickly be upgraded to a high-speed fibre service while Loddiswell, a small exchange that may be in that final 10 per cent who won’t be upgraded to superfast service, will be guaranteed no more than 2Mbps – no improvement at all for most people.

Meanwhile, remember that the TV-over-internet services rapidly gaining popularity such as YouView, BBC iPlayer and Sky’s Now TV already recommend a minimum speed of 3Mbps for standard definition viewing (and significantly more for watching in HD): in other words, 2Mbps is already an out of date target. Ofcom’s director of strategy has suggested the minimum should now be 8 or 10Mbps, the average speed UK broadband consumers currently receive.

Will CDS have directed BT’s priorities in the right direction to ensure that those most in need are helped first? Or will they take the easy way out, opting for a rollout that will boost average speeds while still leaving many rural users stranded in the slow lane? In two or three months we should find out.

NOTE: I wrote and originally published this blog post here on 1 February 2013.

An easy escape from the UK weather

Last night we were offered an amber warning of heavy rainfall by the Met Office and the reality fully lived up to their promise. This morning it was 10C, misty, the wind had subsided and the rain had stopped as I stepped out on my morning duties, about an hour of dog walking, checking the sheep & horses, cleaning, feeding and releasing the chickens.

Of course, as soon as we had set off the rain started again, “a sharp, stinging drizzle fell, billowing into opaque grey sheets when the wind caught it”. Sometimes rain does not really seem to matter, but we’ve had so much of it over the past few months that every fresh downpour seems to add to a cumulative stack of weather induced depression.

Once we had commiserated with the soaked animals, returned home and towelled ourselves down I considered afresh the possibility of selling up and moving to the sun. Is this worth pursuing?

Here’s Gerald Durrell, writing about a different sort of dog walk in Corfu:

“One hot, dreamy afternoon, when everything except the shouting cicadas seemed to be asleep, Roger and I set out to see how far we could climb over the hills before dark. We made our way up through the olive-groves, striped and dappled with white sunlight, where the air was hot and still, and eventually we clambered above the trees and out on to a bare, rocky peak, where we sat down for a rest. The island dozed below us, shimmering like a water-picture in the heat-haze: grey-green olives; black cypresses; multi-coloured rocks of the sea coast; and the sea smooth and opalescent, kingfisher-blue, jade-green, with here and there a pleat or two in its sleek surface where it curved round a rocky, olive-tangled promontory. Directly below us was a small bay with a crescent-shaped rim of white sand, a bay so shallow, and with a floor of such dazzling sand that the water was a pale blue, almost white. I was sweaty after the ascent, and Roger sat with flopping tongue and froth-flecked whiskers. We decided that we would not climb the hills after all; we would go for a bathe instead…”

OK, no need to sell up at all. I’ll just sit and read for a while.

Excerpt from My Family and Other Animals by Gerald Durrell (available at Amazon UK, Amazon USA, Google Play etc)

Village attack: the seventieth anniversary

At four o’clock on the afternoon of 26 January 1943, our village – Aveton Gifford – was attacked by seven Focke Wulf 190 fighter bombers. Each dropped a bomb then circled around, strafing the area with cannon fire before departing.

The thirteenth century village church, St Andrews, received a direct hit and was almost totally destroyed. Only five of the 110 houses in the village were undamaged; ten houses including the rectory had to be demolished. Twenty people were injured, three seriously, and a five year old girl evacuee from Plymouth, Sonia Weeks, was killed.

One of the attacking aircraft was damaged by a soldier who fired a Lewis machine gun at it: this aircraft was later brought down over the English Channel by two Typhoon fighters from RAF Exeter (now Exeter International Airport). The other six aircraft shot-up the clubhouse at Bigbury Golf Club as they made their escape.

German records show that the intended target for the raid was Kingsbridge with Loddiswell as an alternative. It was lucky for the inhabitants of  Loddiswell that the pilots’ navigation was at fault and they hit the wrong village.

St Andrews Church remained derelict for four years; it was rebuilt after the war and reconsecrated in 1957.

These events are covered in more detail in ‘Aveton Gifford: a heritage‘ and ‘The day the bombs fell on Aveton Gifford’, both published by the Aveton Gifford Project Group.

Faster broadband for rural areas? One day, perhaps…

Slow or no internet availability remains a major problem for people attempting to develop businesses or to work from home in rural areas. It is impossible for many to use Skype or even simply watch catch-up TV, services people in more favoured areas of the country increasingly take for granted.

Our friends at Connecting Devon and Somerset (CDS) aim to deliver broadband at a download speed of 24Mbps or greater to 85 per cent of premises in our region by 2015 and a minimum speed of 2Mpbs to the remainder. Later, by 2020, the plan is that everyone should be upgraded to 24Mbps, though it is not clear the funding is in place to achieve this.

On 26 October CDS announced that their preferred bidder for the contract to undertake the upgrade work was BT (not a total surprise) and that they were entering a period of due diligence, finalising details of the contract. They hoped to make a further announcement before the end of the year. Which year, they didn’t say…(see update below).

CDS are operating under the government’s Broadband Delivery UK (BDUK) project, which is run from within the Department for Culture, Media and Sport which is also responsible for Ofcom, the communications regulator.

Today, Ofcom’s group director for strategy Steve Unger has accepted that the target of 2Mbps for the unlucky 15 per cent who will be left behind under the CDS plans is quite inadequate.

“It [the 2Mbps base] was determined by a range of factors about what was deemed necessary at the time to have a basic internet experience and that’s how we arrived at 2Mbps…

“That’s clearly no longer the case, it’s more around 8-10Mbit/s now and this will evolve over time, so it’s unlikely that would still be sufficient in 2020.”

CDS have been quietly deliberating for some time now and no information has been released on how they intend achieving their targets. As is suggested at thinkbroadband it would be pretty pointless investing money boosting internet speeds for the rural disadvantaged from one inadequate speed to another; better by far to upgrade to the same ‘superfast’ standard in one go even if it means that the 2015 target for the 85 per cent will be missed.

But there’s another problem: while 24Mbps may have seemed adequate in 2010 will it still appear so by 2020? It’s unlikely as history shows that the demands for bandwidth increase rapidly as capacity grows. And while rural areas are having speeds boosted to 24Mbps, the government is putting money into selected cities increasing their speeds to 80 to 100Mbps, ensuring that the urban/rural broadband divide persists. In some areas, BT is already offering 330Mbps.

All this highlights the importance that CDS make their chosen solution easily upgradeable and future-proof rather than a short-term fudge to hit an out of date government target. Will they do so? We should find out soon.

NOTE: I wrote and originally published this blog post here on 11 January 2013.

UPDATE: CDS and BT are evidently having trouble reaching agreement on the terms of their contract. This has been covered by the BBC and The Register.

2012 in Devon ended with another record downpour

We travelled back to Devon from Sussex last evening after spending two & a half weeks with my father-in-law. As we arrived home, as I had anticipated the journey along our driveway felt a little bumpier than when we left.

Once indoors, we found messages from our house sitter and the builder who’s been doing some landscaping work for us. Both mentioned the extremely heavy rain just before Christmas which had, it was noted, washed an undetermined amount of top soil from the garden into our swimming pool. The layout of the pool is such that this should be impossible, but given enough rain, clearly, anything can happen.

Once what now passes for daylight arrived this morning, a walk around with the dog confirmed the rain damage to the pool and elsewhere. Further chunks of our (300m long) drive have turned into extended potholes, several trees were down and a section of the bank of our stream has collapsed in a mini-landslide creating a large gap under the fence to one of our ten-acre fields. I’m not quite sure how we’ll fix that yet, but until it’s sorted out that field will have to remain sheep-free.

Our internet connection has also slowed almost to a halt: when I checked this afternoon our download speed was 89 kbps. The rain and a long exchange line does not make for a great ADSL experience.

At least the horses, sheep and chickens were all unharmed.

Spending lazy time at my father-in-law’s house had given my all sorts of ideas of projects to take on to get me fully back into amateur radio; all of those ideas will now be on hold until the immediate weather damage has been fixed.

Rural life can be testing at times, but boring it isn’t.